Lee Jung-hoo, who plans to enter the major leagues later this year via the posting system, is expected to cross the Pacific Ocean for the most expensive contract of any KBO player in history.
In an article titled “MLB Contract Predictions: How much will top free agents sign for?” on March 3 (KST), The Athletic estimated Lee’s contract at four years and $56 million. This was the first time the publication had ever given a specific price tag for Lee.
Tim Britton, who wrote the article, followed up his “Pitcher Free Agents” piece the day before with a focus on the free agents. Britton used mathematical and statistical methods to arrive at the projected contract sizes. “I analyzed the last 10 years of free agent signings and extensions, as well as previous big contracts, and linked them to the previous season’s performance, specifically Fangraphs WAR (fWAR),” he said. We plugged the prospective free agents into the existing data and calculated their salaries relative to players with similar records.
However, KBO players don’t fit into this method because they don’t have major league records. To calculate Lee’s price, Britton explained, “We used his OPS+ for the three seasons he played in the KBO before entering the major leagues and his OPS+ for the three seasons after entering the major leagues. 토토사이트
According to the report, Lee’s OPS+ in the three seasons before entering the major leagues was 132, ranking him fourth behind Eric Thems (147), Byung-ho Park (142), and Jung-ho Kang (135).
Themes rejoined the major leagues in 2017 after playing three seasons with the NC Dinos from 2014-2016, signing a three-year, $15 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers for a $7 million club option for 2020. Since he was a free agent, there was no posting fee.
In late 2015, Park signed a four-year, $12 million deal with the Minnesota Twins through the posting system, with a $6.5 million club option for 2020 and a $500,000 buyout. Minnesota’s bid, or the amount the Heroes paid, was $12.85 million. Jung-ho Kang signed a four-year, $16 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates in late 2014. The Kiwoom received a bid of $5.15 million.
In other words, Lee Jung-hoo is expected to sign a major league contract at a much higher price than these three players, even after accounting for inflation, according to Britton’s analysis.